Page 40 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES: THEORY AND PRACTICE

RISK REDUCTION THROUGH OPTIMAL GRAZING SCENARIOS
FOR LIVESTOCK/FORAGE SYSTEMS IN TEXAS PANHANDLE

David G. Lust, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor
Department of Agricultural Sciences
West Texas A&M University
Canyon, Texas 79016
[email protected]

Lal K. Almas, Ph.D.
Fulbright Scholar and Professor
Department of Agricultural Sciences
West Texas A&M University
Canyon, Texas 79016
[email protected]

ABSTRACT
Mathematical models are developed to determine optimum grazing scenarios for

dryland producers. Model alternatives include wheat, sorghum-sudan, summer
perennial grass, and native range. Precipitation risk and price risk are estimated

for seasonal production alternatives, and options that reduce both price risk and

production risk are examined. Dryland producers are constrained by individual
resources and may be unable to adopt regionally optimum strategies. Risk may

be reduced for producers even if constraints prevent adoption of optimal
strategies. Dryland producers face market risk as well as significant production

risk due to variable precipitation patterns. Combination systems that adopt both
winter and summer grazing may reduce overall risk due to the negative

correlation between winter and summer seasonal precipitation. Optimization

models that can be tailored to individual landowner needs may provide greater
opportunity for small landowners to reduce risk.

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