Page 28 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

Evangelos Siskos, Konstantia Darvidou: Trade of the EU with Eastern European countries
(case of Ukraine and Turkey)

low (0.15). These countries are followed by Bulgaria and Latvia. In some cases
correlation is slightly negative, e.g. -0.03 in case of Belgium, Denmark and the
Netherlands. Therefore goods exporters of Ukraine are rather complementary to the
EU trade than competitors.
As for structure of goods exports of Turkey, the highest correlation is with Spain
(0.62) followed by Portugal, Romania, Italy, United Kingdom, Poland, Slovakia,
Germany, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovenia. These countries are relatively
more vulnerable to competition with Turkey. Substantial correlation is also in case of
Sweden, Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Luxemburg, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Greece, Estonia
and the Netherland. The lowest correlation is with Denmark and France, Latvia, Cyprus,
Finland, Malta and especially Ireland (-0.04). Therefore all the EU Member States
except Ireland experience higher structural export competition with Turkey than
Ukraine. The main competitors of Turkey are several Southern European countries,
United Kingdom and some Central European countries. The level of structural
competition between Turkey and the EU is similar to competition between the EU
Member States themselves. E.g. the correlations with the EU-28 product structure of
exports range from 0.31(Luxemburg) and 0.36 (Greece) to 0.85 (Spain) and 0.92
(Germany).
The correlations between the structure of services exports of both Turkey and
Ukraine with the EU are similar (0.52 and 0.60). There is also a positive correlation
between services export structures of Ukraine and Turkey (0.40). We also consider
competition with exports of the particular EU Member States.
Correlations with structure of Ukrainian services exports vary substantially.
There are several groups of countries with:
- high correlation (more than 0.75): Denmark, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia,
Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia;
- substantial correlation (0.50-0.75): Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the
Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Sweden;
- weak correlation (0.25-0.50): Italy, Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom;
- low correlation (below 0.25): Croatia, Ireland, Luxemburg, Malta.
We see that the highest competition in services is with Central European
countries (the highest correlation 0.94 is with Romania), while the lowest one is
with Southern Europe, the smallest Member States (especially negative correlation -
0.08 with Luxemburg) and British islands.
The groups of countries by correlation with structure of services exports of
Turkey are:
- high correlation (more than 0.75): Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech
Republic, Estonia, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain;

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