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Hashim Al-Ali: Towards a realistic medium term macroeconomic and fiscal framework and
outlook for the Somali national economy (2017- 2019)

of life and social cohesion. Perceptive and competent economic management and responsive as
well as efficient institutions are needed to be in place to soothe and mitigate the likely risks on
the economy, and the society at large. Some of these required instruments to mitigate the risks
that may facing the implementation of the Somali national development plan’s objectives,
amongst others, are; flexible market mechanism, creating and enhancing strategic financial
reserve, and to some extents, establishing well designed and structured social protection systems.
The Somali national development plan (SNDP) is inspired by an overall national desire and
vision of the future, that formulated by the political leadership and national economic decision-
makers, through extensive discussions and consultations with various stakeholders, regional
states, communities and the society at large, which identified and reflected the aspiration of the
Somali citizens.

However, the SNDP highlighted the envisaged future directions of the Somali economy may be
summarized as follows: By the end of the plan period (end 2019) the Somali economy will be
put on the right and sustainable growth track, with enhanced domestic revenue and enlarging the
fiscal space, this is together with a well-defined direction and road-map towards creating
macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability. It would creating work opportunities to
citizens, with better quality of education and training systems, better and more accessible health
services and health care at all parts of the country, advanced process of having well established
public services that necessary to ensure the society welfare while preserving the national positive
traditions and nation heritage.

Macroeconomic Variables, their Growth Trajectories and Trends during the SNDP period
(2017-2019):

The Trends and the Outlook for the Main Macroeconomic Framework and Sectoral
Variables during the National Development Plan Period:

The Federal Republic of Somalia (FRS) is facing with the serious challenges of rebuilding the
state institutions in the midst of on-going conflict. Since the collapse of the national government
in 1991, Somalia has experienced cycles of destructive conflict that fragmented the country,
destroyed legitimate institutions and created widespread impoverishment and vulnerability.
Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and human development outcomes are now among the
lowest in the world.

Following the positive transition of mid-2012, Somalia has a full federal government in
Mogadishu committed to inclusiveness, reconciliation and peace, based on a provisional
constitution. Many observers hail the transition as a genuine break with the past, and the best
opportunity for stability for the country that has had widespread and vicious conflict and intense
fragmentation for more than two decades.

Somalia’s economy has been shaped and sustained in recent years by having a stable government
and through implementation of economic development policies and programmes, and supported
by the New Deal Compact signed with international development partners of Somalia. As there

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