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THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES: THEORY AND PRACTICE, V.70, # 2, 2013, pp. 32-66

AN INTEGRATED MACRO-FISCAL FORECASTING MODEL AND ITS
APPLICATION FOR THE BANGLADESH ECONOMY

Dr. Hashim Al-Ali

Senior Macroeconomic and Fiscal Management Advisor
Ottawa, CANADA

(Paper to be presented at the International Conference on Economic Modeling – EcoMod2013 – in
Prague, Czech Republic, July 1-3, 2013)

Received 30 August 2013; accepted 11 December 2013; published online 25 December 2013

Abbreviations

BB Bangladesh Bank
BBS Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics
BMFFM Bangladesh Macro-Fiscal Forecasting Model
CES Constant Elasticity of Substitution
CPI Consumer Price Index
EPB Export Promotion Bureau
FD Finance Division
FDI Foreign Direct Investment
FTS Foreign Trade Statistics
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GDPD Gross Domestic Product Deflator
iBAS Integrated Budget Accounting System
MEW Macroeconomic Wing
MOF Ministry of Finance
MTBF Medium Term Budget Framework
MTMF Medium Term Macroeconomic Framework
NBR National Board of Revenue
PFM Public Finance Management
PIP Public Investment Programme
TFP Total Factors Productivity

1. Abstract and Background:
The main objective of this modelling efforts is to formulate and articulate, a macroeconomic

and fiscal model for forecasting and decision purposes for Bangladesh. Given the actual modeling
needs, the limitation and coverage of the available statistical data and limited modelling related

capacity within the ministry of finance (MOF), an attempt has been made here to structure,

formulate and numerically articulate a macro-fiscal forecasting model that is characterized as;
realistic, simple, though comprehensive but easy to understand and comprehend, integrated for all

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