Page 45 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES: THEORY AND PRACTICE, V.70, # 2, 2013, pp. 32-66

3.4 The Macro-Fiscal Forecasting Model Complete System of Equations:

The followings are the main equations system of the model that have been solved in an integral
manner and simultaneously, with the main segments of the economy have been dealt with
separately and in an integral and joint manner, when the model has empirically articulated and
implemented, both; for forecasting and decision making:

The Macro-Fiscal Forecasting Model's Equations
The Main Equations No.
X t = ῼ t CP t-1 = X t-1 + ῼ t (PC t - PC t-1) + ( ῼ t - ῼ t-1) CP t-1 1
ῼ t = X t / CP t 2
CP t = K t-1 / k 3
n
n
4
K t = (1- ɗ ) K t-1 + I t and K t-1 = (1- ɗ) K t-2 + I t-1
1/n
r = [ X t / X 0 ] - 1 5
i
X t = Σ X t (i= 1,…..n , and n =3) {Agr., Ind., & Ser.} 6
i
X t = φ i X t 7
ag
X t = φ 1 X t 8
in
X t = φ 2 X t 9
sv
X t = φ 3 X t 10
i
1/n
i
i
r = ( X t / X 0 ) -1 11
i
i
i
r = Σ { r * X t / Σ X t } 12
αҡ 1-αҡ
X t = A t [K t L t ] 13
L t = α lb + l X t 14
s
s
L t = ( 1 + lѕg) L t-1 15
s
s
ROU t = (L t - L t )/ L t 17
s
s
1/n
g e = { L t / L 0 } -1 18
0
t
P ℓ = X t / L t and P ℓ = X 0 /L 0 19
1/n
t
0
ρ ℓ = { P ℓ / P ℓ } -1 20
X t = C t + G t + I t + CS t + E t – M t = GDP 21
c t = α 1 + β 1 din + β 2 c t-1 22
c t = C t / POP t and POP t = (1 + r pop ) POP t-1 23
din t = DIN t / POP t 24
DIN t = GNDI t - DTR t 25
GNDI t = X t + NR t + RNI t + ONT t 26
e
GNI t = X t + NR t 27
G t = WSA t + GS t + FOCS t + EFS t + GCO t + PDS t r 28
GE t = G t + ADP t + NADP t 29
WSA t = (1 + r wsa) WSA t-1 30
λ
GS t = c GS t-1 , or GS = (1 + λ ) GS t-1 31
ADP t = (1 + r adp ) ADP t-1 32
NADP t = (1+ r nadp ) NADP t-1 33
EFS t = pes (G t-1 ) 34
FOCS t = ( 1 + δ os ) FOCS t-1 35
GCO t = pro gco (G t-1 ) 36
PDS t = π 1 DD t-1 + π 2 ED t-1 37
p
g
n
I t = I t + I t 38

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