Page 134 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

Christian Elsner, Dennis Häckl: Health Economic value generation in the Azerbaijan Republic:
simulatedresults for a integrated telecardiology care program

In a third step the Scenario-Analysis takes place, which can be different for different

adaptions of the simulation. In this step, the technology used or compared is specified, the

reference and benchmark publications are chosen and the simulation is run with a different set of

minimum and maximum parameters from the chosen publications.

In the fourth and last step the simulation is custom-tailored to a specific population-mix

according to the parameters delivered e.g. from the payor and the impact on the whole

population and single patients is calculated.

IV. THE SELECTION OF SPECIFIC MODEL DATA

For the simulation model a simulated AR population mix of 167.551 people was designed:

The population had a spread of heart failure according to New York Health Association (NYHA)

(= I: 20%, II: 35%, III: 22%, IV: 23%), a male and female mix of 50:50, a median age of 65 with

a standard deviation of 12. This mix was estimated from the Healthgrades © approximation

[http://www.rightdiagnosis.com/c/congestive_heart_failure/stats-country.htm]. The population

was postulated an Atrial Flutter (AF) prevalence of 6% and a 6% yearly risk of a myocardial

infarction (MI).The model implemented 3 dimensions of effects shown in Figure 4.

Topic Method of Intervention and no. of Patients

Risk Reduction in the More effective monitoring and selection of high risk
1 field of myocardial patients to reduce costs and myocardial infarctions in
infarction (MI) the patients.

Risk Reduction in the More effective selection of AF patients – reducing the
2 field of stroke burden / side effect of anticoagulation and reduction of
stroke in the patients.

More efficient care More effective monitoring of the patient and thus
3 in the field of chronic targeted reduction in intensive days and treatment
heart failure (CHF) costs at 50% of the patients.

Fig. 4The 4 effects on effectiveness of care and corresponding patients in the population

134