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THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES: THEORY AND PRACTICE, V.71, # 1, 2014, pp. 127-139

pay-per-performance way with the single providers may be an adequate way to overcome this

shortfall in the care and incentive mechanism. Idea of this paper was to adapt a simulation for an

approximation on the health economic effects of such a technology in the AR.

III. METHODOLOGY OF BUILDING THE MODEL

Simulations and Modelling are defined as a “... replicable sequence of computations used for

generating estimates of quantities of concern [...] based on data from primary and/or secondary

sources…” [National Reasearch Council. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisisions: the

Uses of Microsimulation Modeling. Vol 1. Review and Recommandations. National Academy Press,

Washington DC, 1991] and are recommended in the modernization Act of the Food and Drug

Administration (FDA) end of the 80´s[Compare: www.fda.gov/cdrh/modact97.pdf] as valueable tool

to help in healthcare and social policy decisions. According to the FDA simulations it can also be

some kind of “Evidence based Medicine” (EBM) – which names the conscientious, explicit and

judicious use of current best external evidence in makingdecisionsin the care of individual patients

[Sackett DL, Rosenberg WMC et al.: Evidence-based medicine: What it is and what it isn’t. BMJ,

1996, 312, 71-72]. This Definition includes, that EBM is not limited to studies and meta-analyzes.

Also the general concept of the expected value of information (VOI) from decision theory

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_information] is transferable to EBM:The VOI is defined as

the difference between the expected consequences (benefits) of a decision to be made under

consideration of specific information and the expected consequences (benefits) if that decision is

made without that information [Raiffa H.: Decision Analysis; Introductory Lectures on Choices

under Uncertainty. Reading, MA.Addison Wesley, 1968]. Due to this high expectation several

standards for testing and validating a healthcare simulation had to be kept [Weinstein MC; O’Brian B

et al.: Principles of Good Practice for Decision Analytic Modeling in Health-Care Evaluation: Report

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