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Gorkhmaz Imanov, Yadulla Hasanli: Forecasting of oil and gas extraction in Azerbaijan on the basis
of Hubbert’s model
Oil exploration calculated based on model (9) was provided in the Appendix 3.
The actual oil exploration in 1990-2013 and recast for 2014-2030 were provided on Graph 5 below.
The lower and upper ranges of the oil exploration were calculated in the econometric model (9).
60
50
40
QP_neft(fakt)
30 QP proqnoz(min)
QP proqnoz
20
QP proqnoz(max)
10
0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Graph 4. Actual and forecast values of oil exploration Azerbaijan
We would like to note that the forecast for oil exploration in Azerbaijan provided by the World Bank is as
in Graph 5 [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/ bitstream/handle/10986/13825/ multi0page. txt? sequence=2].
Azerbaijan Oil Production
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
Million Tons 30,000
20,000
10,000
Source: World Bank
Graph 5. The forecast of oil exploration in Azerbaijan during 2000-2024 according
to the Oil Model prepared by the World Bank
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