Page 31 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

Hashim Al-Ali: Towards a realistic medium term macroeconomic and fiscal framework and
outlook for the Somali national economy (2017- 2019)

It is worth mentioning that it is believed that the above forecasted and derived fiscal framework for
the Somali economy, particularly, on the likely domestic revenue level and the functionally
appropriate pace of recurrent expenditure, during the SNDP period (2017-2019), is economically
and fiscally plausible, and the setting is consistent with assumed compound annual growth rate of
the national economy, of the “Hopeful” scenario, of the 5.5 per annum during the plan period.
These forecasts and outlook factors suggest that a prudent approach should be taken with respect to
the actual profile of public expenditures over this period, which should preserve the main planned
structure and priorities as stated in the SNDP. Furthermore, the set projection of the three years
public accounts and fiscal framework, covering the SNDP period 2017-2019, would, undoubtedly,
be useful to set the base of Somali Ministry of Finance (MOF), to starting formulate the much
needed rolling-over medium term budget framework (MTBF), for the economy for the same time
period of the plan (2017-2019), which in turn to be used as a comprehensive base for the country
annual budgets. However, we should bear in mind that there is statistical paucity and inconsistency
on various aspects of the public accounts variables, together with their database used in this paper
forecasting and projections, therefore, it is expected that there would be a feedback mechanism, for
updating the used database, when better and more consistent and accurate data, on these and other
used variables became available, through time.

References

Al-Ali, Hashim (2002) “An Aggregated Macroeconomic Accounting Model and Its Applications
for Kosovo Economy”, Central Fiscal Authority (Now Ministry of Finance and Economic
Development)/USAID, Pristina, December 2002

Al-Ali, Hashim (2011) “Macroeconomic Development and Fiscal Management for Timor-Leste
Economy”, Ministry of Finance, Dili

Al-Ali, Hashim (2013) “An Integrated Macro-Fiscal Forecasting Model and Its Applications for
the Bangladesh Economy”, The Journal of Economic Science: Theory and Practice, Vol. 70, No.
2, Baku, pp32-66.

Al-Ali, Hashim (2014) “Towards establishing a viable macroeconomic and medium-term fiscal
framework integrated approach for the Iraqi economy”, International Journal of Contemporary
Iraqi Studies (IJCIS), Volume 6, Issue 2, November, pp 195…

Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, Somalia (2016) “Somalia National
Development Plan 217-2019” Mogadishu, July -various chapters-

Statistics Department/MOPIC, Somalia (2015-2016) “Various Statistical Reports and Bulletins”,
Mogadishu

World Bank (2015) “Somali Economic Update”, November, Country Report

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