Page 55 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

Vilayat İsmayilov, Nahid Almasov, Sarraf Mirzayev:The Programme of Reduction and
Profilling of Long-Term Unemployment in Azerbaijan

Profiling involves providing the unemployed with intensive programs that affect
employment at the stage of new unemployment, rather than after the onset of long-term
unemployment.

This methodology is relatively widespread in the United States, Australia, and the
Netherlands. The quantitative assessment of the profiling of the unemployed is
based on the use of statistical methods.

According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD), unemployment profiling based on direct statistical models is carried out
only in the United States. On the basis of this method, the probability of joining the
newly registered unemployed in the Employment Service bodies to the long-term
unemployed is estimated. In the terminology of the Employment Service in the
United States, the long-term unemployed include those persons for whom the
deadline for receiving state assistance without unemployment insurance has expired
[Zhu, A. and Kotz, D. 2011]. The maximum period for receiving this assistance is 6
months. Statistical profiling models use a limited number of variables that are
characterized by education, work experience, the fact of changing professions, the
level of unemployment in the local labor market, etc. Common statistical models
make extensive use of other variables, including age, ethnicity, gender, and so on. In
Australia, the long-term unemployed are given the opportunity to participate in
intensive employment-related programs through the jobless profiling procedure. The
amount spent on such programs is approximately half of the amount spent by the
State on employment impact services. The criterion for the participation of the
unemployed in these programs is the number (number of points) calculated on the
basis of the variables of the profiling programs, and the number of points is
estimated using practical ways by the employees of the Employment Service. As a
result of the joint procedure of the program for profiling the unemployed, it can be
noted that this issue is acutely different in the states of the country. About 33% of
the country's Employment Service states have approved the minimum number of
joint programs that affect the employment of unemployed people selected as a result
of the profiling procedure, but in 45% of the country's states, more than half of the
unemployed who have passed the profiling procedure are registered to participate in
additional programs [OECD Employment Outlook, 2012; https://take-profit.org/
statistics/unemployment-rate/ united-states/].

Based on the classification data, unemployed people with the status of unemployed
are sent to participate in intensive programs that affect employment. Here, the
classifier is based on a statistical analysis of data that reflects the identification of
factors that increase the likelihood that unemployment will last more than 1 year.
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