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Umudvar Q.Aliyev, Gunay U.Guliyeva: Explorıng Economıc Expansıon In Azerbaıjan’s Natıonal Economy

narrower GDP-centric focus of growth. The review also incorporates Azerbaijan-
specific studies (e.g., Aliyev, 2019; Aliyev & Quliyeva, 2024) to contextualize global
theories within the national framework.
Second, a case study approach was employed to analyze Azerbaijan’s economic
expansion, focusing on two dimensions: the restoration of geographical space post-
occupation and the broadening of economic activity through international integration.
Data were sourced from official reports, including the State Statistical Committee of
Azerbaijan (e.g., GDP, population, sectoral contributions), the World Bank (e.g., oil
rents), and government programs (e.g., Azerbaijan 2030). Historical data spanning
1990–2024 were examined to assess economic trends during and after the occupation,
with particular attention to pivotal events such as the "Contract of the Century" (1994)
and the Second Karabakh War (2020). Qualitative insights from international forums
(e.g., COP29, Davos 2025) and media reports (e.g., Republic Newspaper, 2024)
supplemented the analysis, highlighting Azerbaijan’s evolving global role.
Quantitative data were analyzed descriptively to identify patterns in GDP growth,
trade balances, and sectoral shifts (e.g., non-oil sector growth to 70% of GDP by
2024). Key metrics, such as foreign trade turnover ($42.814 billion in 2024) and
investment flows (e.g., $20 billion in Turkey), were evaluated to measure the
expansion of economic activity. Comparative analysis was used to contrast
Azerbaijan’s strategies with those of large states (e.g., U.S. policies under Trump),
focusing on differences in scale, resource leverage, and geopolitical influence.
Limitations include the reliance on secondary data, which may lack granularity for
liberated territories, and the qualitative nature of some international examples, which
are illustrative rather than exhaustive.
This methodology enables a holistic exploration of economic expansion, bridging
theoretical insights with empirical evidence to elucidate Azerbaijan’s unique
trajectory and its broader implications for small-state economies.

SOURCES OF ECONOMİC EXPANSION IN THE AZERBAIJANI
ECONOMY
We seek to examine the transformations in Azerbaijan’s economy across various
historical periods, focusing on economic growth—a topic that has received relatively
limited attention in the scientific literature on the Azerbaijani economy. In contrast to
economic growth, the sources of economic expansion are comparatively constrained.
Drawing on economic literature and acknowledging the prevailing limited
frameworks for analyzing economic growth, this study investigates the dynamics of
economic growth during the occupation of Azerbaijani territories by the Republic of
Armenia and following their complete liberation. In doing so, we also evaluate the
factors influencing economic growth. Our analysis aims to elucidate the disparities in

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