Page 58 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES: THEORY AND PRACTICE, V.72, # 2, 2015, pp. 54-72

The task of the expertise is an evaluation of the scientific and technological
level of an object and its feasibility and efficiency. On the basis of the expertise
decisions are taken concerning the expediency and volume of financing. The
methods of expert evaluations are used for forecasting of the scientific and technical
events, which are the sources of innovations, and for identification of the actions,
necessary to ensure the scientific-technical and economic development of an object,
and for forecasting of the terms and costs for solving of the arising problems.
The expert methods allow us to predict the qualitative breakthroughs in
various areas of science, technologies and economy, changing the present
development trends. A drawback typical for all the expert methods consists in
prevalence of a subjective approach to evaluation of the future.
Often a most accurate evaluation of the future is influenced by the
psychological factors, for example, such as the opinions of the majority of experts or
opinions of the most authoritative scientists. The expert methods are effective for
evaluation of an innovative potential, when the quantitative methods do not justify
themselves, because it is practically impossible to find a function, adequately
approximating the dependence between a big number of variables in the conditions
of uncertainty of the initial data and limiting terms.
Statistical method for evaluation of an innovative potential
Such methods allow us without revealing of all the determined ties between
the studied sequence of events or system elements reflected in a model, but on the
basis of a selective observation to identify regularities and to extend them to the
behavior of the system as a whole, to detect the character, force of mutual influence
of the elements within a system structure and also of the environment components.
The statistics elaborates a special methodology for studying and processing of
materials: mass observations, method of groups, average values, indexes, balance
method, method of graphical images, and other methods of analysis (Gorbenko A.
A. (2012)).
Statistics of numerical data is a basic method widely used in economic
researches. The methods based on the numerical statistics have a number of
drawbacks. Such inaccuracy in respect to the analysis of an innovative potential
consists in impossibility to have statistical information during an indicator analysis,
or in an insufficient volume of samples for certain indicators.
Obviously, for creation of an adequate and accurate model for evaluation of an
innovative potential of subjects the methods based on the numerical statistics and the

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