Page 60 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES: THEORY AND PRACTICE, V.72, # 2, 2015, pp. 54-72

The fact that uncertainty is not taken into account in an estimation model leads to a
considerable error in the results. In modern conditions such an error is inadmissible.
Therefore for evaluation of an innovative potential only the theory of fuzzy sets is used.
Fuzzy-set method for evaluation of an innovative potential
Set-theoretic presentations are based on the following notions: set, set
elements and relations over set. Of special importance is the analysis based on the
theory of fuzzy sets (Gorbenko A. A. (2012)).
Construction of models within the framework of the fuzzy approach gives us a
chance to compare models and to give exact meaning to the notions:
"high", "low", "most preferable", "highly expected", "most likely".
There appears what is described in science as a linguistic variable with its
term-multitude of values, while the connection of the quantitative value of a certain
factor with its qualitative linguistic description is set by the functions of
membership of the factor to a fuzzy set. Certainly, the theory of fuzzy sets is not an
absolutely
independent method and it is used in a combination with the other methods of
evaluation for the purpose of introduction and taking into account of the uncertainty
factor. For the analysis of the social and economic indexes the theory of fuzzy sets is
usually used together with the statistical methods and methods of expert evaluations.
In our opinion, one of the possible ways to increase reliability and validity of
the evaluation of the level of an innovative potential is application of the methods
based on the theory of fuzzy sets. Fuzzy-interval methods have indisputable
advantages in comparison with the probabilistic methods in the conditions of
uncertainty (Table 1).
So, for evaluation of a multifactorial model of an innovative potential most
suitable is the method, which can allow us to eliminate the insufficiency of the data used
for evaluations and probability of the experts‟ errors. Therefore, the fuzzy-set approach
is the most acceptable in this situation, allowing experts to think in the categories
correlated with concrete numerical intervals. The existing systems of classifications of
the methods for evaluation of an innovative potential of the economic systems can be
expanded by the mathematical methods of the fuzzy sets theory.
Development of a system of balanced indicators for evaluation of the level of
an innovative potential and determination of their interrelation within the framework
of such a model were done with the use of a determined factorial analysis, and are
logically predetermined by the essence of an innovative activity of the subjects
(countries, economic zones, regions and enterprises).

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