Page 42 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

Turaj Musayev: The Oil Boom in Azerbaijan and Modeling of Economic Growth in Post-Oil Era

Appendıx 1

Estimation Command:
LS(DERIV=AA) R_SAVING REAL_GDP MA (1) AR (1)
Estimation Equation:
REAL_SAVING=C(1)*REAL_GDP+[AR(1)=C(2),MA(1)=C(3),BACKCAST=2001,ESTS
MPL ="2001 2013"]
Substituted Coefficients:
REAL_SAVING=0.205133092015*REAL_GDP[AR(1)=0.754837146075,MA(1)=0.888578
691287, BACKCAST=2001,ESTSMPL="2001 2013"]

Dependent Variable: REAL_SAVING
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/02/17 Time: 02:47
Sample (adjusted): 2001 2013
Included observations: 13 after adjustments
Convergence achieved after 18 iterations
MA Backcast: 2000
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
REAL_GDP 0.205133 0.049011 4.185458 0.0019
AR (1) 0.754837 0.210021 3.594099 0.0049
MA (1) 0.888579 0.158206 5.616610 0.0002
R-squared 0.696393 Mean dependent var 3104.692
Adjusted R-squared 0.635672 S.D. dependent var 787.7870
S.E. of regression 475.5051 Akaike info criterion 15.36581
Sum squared resid 2261051. Schwarz criterion 15.49618
Log-likelihood -96.87774 Hannan-Quinn criteria. 15.33901
Durbin-Watson stat 1.471227
Inverted AR Roots .75
Inverted MA Roots -.89

Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey
F-statistic 1.652667 Prob. F (1,11) 0.2250
Obs*R-squared 1.698035 Prob. Chi-Square (1) 0.1925
Scaled explained SS 0.504354 Prob. Chi-Square (1) 0.4776
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/02/17 Time: 02:50
Sample: 2001 2013
Included observations: 13
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 314693.6 119958.8 2.623348 0.0237
REAL_GDP -10.34300 8.045511 -1.285561 0.2250
R-squared 0.130618 Mean dependent var 173927.0
Adjusted R-squared 0.051583 S.D. dependent var 181384.8
S.E. of regression 176644.6 Akaike info criterion 27.14231
Sum squared resid 3.43E+11 Schwarz criterion 27.22922
Log-likelihood -174.4250 Hannan-Quinn criter. 27.12444
F-statistic 1.652667 Durbin-Watson stat 2.460090
Prob(F-statistic) 0.225001

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